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Raffle winners ... and a question

Discussion in 'Oktoberfest 2012' started by Qbrozen, Sep 18, 2012.

    • Member

    Qbrozen

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    I would imagine everyone received this same email, but just in case:
    http://www.bmwcca.org/node/4786

    Forgive my ignorance, but this is the first time I've ever seen the drawing take place. Is that EVERY entry in one bin?
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    03BeastCharmer

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    Yes. All the entry are in the same bin. There isn't a separate bin for each vehicle.
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    mrsbee

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    I thought it was curious that my ticket number doesn't contain the same number of digits as the numbers called from the drawing.

    I'll still win.
    • Member
    • Staff

    elliottsb BMW CCA Director of IT

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    The first part of the ticket number is the date on which it was purchased. After that there is an incremental number to make it unique.

    Good luck! ThumbsUp.gif
    MrsBee likes this.
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    mrsbee

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    now it all makes sense! That why I just draw circles on paper and play in flower beds :)
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    Qbrozen

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    Thanks for the reply, beastcharmer.

    Not to be a jerk... but that's a bit disappointing. So the claim that you are "guaranteed a 1 in 5000 chance" is false. Obviously, if 45,000 tickets go in, then you are 1 in 45,000. Even as winners are pulled, it changes to 1 in 44,999 and 1 in 44,998, etc. The more tickets they sell, the lower your odds, regardless of the number of vehicles. They would, in fact, need to pull from a new batch of 5k for each car to uphold that 1 in 5k chance claim.
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    wellardmac Ninja World Traveler

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    This is very true. The people involved in marketing the raffle clearly do not understand statistics and the marketing is misleading.

    I was also disappointed to see all of the entries crammed in there, as the drum has zero chance of randomizing the tickets, due to being so crammed with tickets that there is no possible way of movement when the drum is rotated. If you're going to place that many tickets in a drum, then you need to use a big enough drum to allow free motion on rotation of the drum.

    I was excited by the success of the raffle, but was unimpressed when I saw the implementation on video.
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    mrsbee

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    Agreed! I know that this is for a good cause and all, but fair is fair.

    It's not like my one measly ticket really had a chance anyway!
    • Member

    steven s

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    As tickets are added to the drum it is rotated. They weren't all put in at once.
    • Member

    Qbrozen

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    Thanks for chiming in, Steve. Any chance this issue would be fixed in the future? Or who I should direct my comments to? I think the best thing they can do is separate the tickets in future years.
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    davem3fan DaveM3Fan

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    The way they are in there to begin with is random. Get a grip, people.
    • Member

    Qbrozen

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    Just to be clear, that part of it is not my concern at all.
    MrsBee likes this.
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    davem3fan DaveM3Fan

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    The question is if someone buys 5 tickets, are there 5 entries in the barrel for John Q. Ticketholder?
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    Qbrozen

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    No. My comment is that each ticketholder's odds are far far less than the claimed 1 in 5000. HOW they mix the tickets has no affect on this. Because they are grouping all of the tickets together, your ticket that you bought for a 1 in 5000 chance actually only has a 1 in 45,000 chance (or however many tickets they sold; I'm saying 45k because I believe they were up to 9 cars).

    Like someone else said, its going to a cause, and that's great, and its not like I'm asking for a refund or anything. I would just like the advertising to be accurate. I'm an editor, so it is in my nature to nitpick.
    MrsBee likes this.
    • Member

    eblue540 Fourth Gen Bimmers

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    Well, yes you are one in 45,000 numbers in the barrel. But a hand will reach into that barrel 9 times looking for your ticket, so I think the "1 in 5000" is a fair description of the chances you'll get picked, don't you?
    • Member

    Qbrozen

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    No, I don't. It just isn't how statistics work. As I said above, even on the ninth car, your odds have only gone down to 1 in 44,992. To get to 1 in 5000 out of a barrel of 45k tickets, they will either have to give away 40,001 cars or you'd have to buy 39,992 tickets.

    To try and put it another way, in a 1 in 5000 drawing, you could buy 5000 tickets and be guaranteed a win. Do you think you are guaranteed a win in this drawing if you buy 5000? Anyone who thinks so, I'd LOVE to play poker against.
    • Member

    wellardmac Ninja World Traveler

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    Yup, you are exactly correct. I hate to say it but BMWCCA is on very dangerous ground by advertising 1 in 5000 odds of winning when that's clearly not true. I'm no lawyer, but I would be fairly confident that the misleading advertising could be used by someone if they wanted to push it in court.

    In order for this to get closer to the advertised odds, they would have to break the entries up into 5000 ticket lots before the drawing. I have no idea how they could handle the odds for the main prizes. Personally, I would just state it as being 1 in (insert number of entries).
    SapphireBlackM6 likes this.
    • Member

    steven s

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    So If someone buys 100 tickets the first day, they all go into a standalone drawing? One ticket is pulled and he/she is no longer eligible to win in the remaining drawings?

    Would it be better to state there is a 9 in 45000 chance of winning?
    • Member
    • Staff

    elliottsb BMW CCA Director of IT

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    The 1 out of 5000 probability is an accurate statistic. Honestly, I had my doubts after reading this thread. However, after I dusted off the statistics brain cells in my noggin, I performed the calculations for myself. Here's how to calculate it from this year's raffle data:

    Number of tickets purchased by a member: 1
    Number of prizes awarded: 9
    Number of tickets sold: 45,000

    Now, the way to calculate the probability of winning at least once is to first calculate the probability of losing, and then subtract it from 1. Here's how that breaks down for each of the nine drawings:
    Code:
    Tickets Not
    Purchased   Tickets     Probability
    by Member   in Drum     of Losing
    ---------   ----------  -----------
    44999       45000       0.999977778
    44998       44999       0.999977777
    44997       44998       0.999977777
    44996       44997       0.999977776
    44995       44996       0.999977776
    44994       44995       0.999977775
    44993       44994       0.999977775
    44992       44993       0.999977774
    44991       44992       0.999977774
    
    Next, you have to multiply the losing probabilities from each of the drawings. That equals 0.9998. Finally, subtract it from one: 1 - 0.9998 = 0.0002. That is the probability of winning at least once.

    So, how does that number compare to the stated chances of winning? 1/5000 = 0.0002.

    Conclusion: no need to sue the club over misstated chances of winning!

    On a side note: the staff of BMW CCA would like to congratulate the winners of the 2012 Car of Your Dreams Raffle, and give a huge THANK YOU to everyone who purchased a ticket for making this year a resounding success!
    • Member

    SapphireBlackM6

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    Reminds me of the refrain, "lies, damn lies and statistics"

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