I agree with your post, Matt. I can count on one hand when my 328xi came in handy (ie AWD) so figured my new car was going to be just fine as a RWD. So far I'm still running on the stock tires. We'll see how the Jersey winter goes!
Tires, Tires, Tires One often forgets how much difference tires make. The x-Drive system works great on the rare day that you need it. However with incorrect tires it's irrelevant. In fact, I find x-drive more useful for rapid acceleration "on to the highway" in rain, than for busting through snow banks. As is often forgotten concerning brakes, the brakes stop the wheels, the tires stop the car. The best car I ever had in the snow was an Infiniti I30, front wheel drive, with Pirelli P6 All season tires. Go figure. It's Hobson's choice.
Snow tires will make a RWD car pretty hard to stop in the snow. Snow tires on an AWD car will make it unstoppable! I say this assuming there isn't 5 feet of snow on the ground, but with a nice layer of flattened snow from the lack of plows but cars going over it constantly.
I can say I have done both of your scenarios. I had a 2001 330xi, which SUCKED in snow until I got a good set of blizzaks from Tire Rack. Then, the semi annual swamp would work just great, I loved being able to floor it in the rain, and not slip AT ALL, and it was great in the snow. But, I traded that in for a 335D, lots of torque, oh my! I thought, what will I do in the winter? Tire Rack to the rescue and the blizzaks are great. I don't have 4 tires/wheels all working in unison as I did with the XI, but I can get around just fine, even in 5" of snow. Bottom line: they BOTH work, but I traded off the advantage of AWD for 40 MPG on the highway. No regrets. I bet that does not help you decide!
As the person who started this discussion, I just wanted to add that when the lease on my 2010 335i was up in April 2013, I did replace it with a 2013 335xi. I have been very pleased with how the car handles in the snow, which we have had a lot of this winter in RI. And the AWD system is very unobtrusive.
Wisconsin checking in here. We've had a terrible winter so far and the AWD makes it a breeze, hell it makes it fun sometimes. If you have snow for a significant portion of the year it makes sense. If not, spare yourself the understeer and go with the RWD. You can check some weather sites for total snowfall or avg snowfall in the region. I would consider AWD a must in wisconsin this winter but the 3 winters before it I would have been fine with RWD. I rather like the AWD setup anyways so that's what I went with.
Everyone is neglecting two very real situations that 4WD wins at: 1) Hills. I have to go from 700 ft elevation to 1400 ft elevation to get home from work. My 335xi with 4 blizzaks can start out on any snow covered road on a hill in my area (central NY). Maybe RI isn't too hilly, but if you want to visit VT then ... 2) Unplowed driveway. Maybe the roads are plowed and salted, but I snowblow my own driveway. When I get home I want to drive the 500 ft to the garage, not hike it. The 335xi has actually pushed it way through the snow (snow blowing up over the hood) to get through. As far as the comment about the truck needed for 'real' snow, the poster was correct. If there is deep wind blown packed snow you need ground clearance to prevent high centering.
I've had both. My 335d (RWD only) has snows on it, I've only been stuck once when I backed up into some deeper snow and high-centered it. But I've high-centered my older '01 330xi with snow tires on it, too. Bottom line: xDrive is a bit more settled, and is almost unstoppable with snows. RWD with snows will get you through anything but the worst conditions.
