I agree with your post, Matt. I can count on one hand when my 328xi came in handy (ie AWD) so figured my new car was going to be just fine as a RWD. So far I'm still running on the stock tires. We'll see how the Jersey winter goes!
Tires, Tires, Tires One often forgets how much difference tires make. The x-Drive system works great on the rare day that you need it. However with incorrect tires it's irrelevant. In fact, I find x-drive more useful for rapid acceleration "on to the highway" in rain, than for busting through snow banks. As is often forgotten concerning brakes, the brakes stop the wheels, the tires stop the car. The best car I ever had in the snow was an Infiniti I30, front wheel drive, with Pirelli P6 All season tires. Go figure. It's Hobson's choice.
Snow tires will make a RWD car pretty hard to stop in the snow. Snow tires on an AWD car will make it unstoppable! I say this assuming there isn't 5 feet of snow on the ground, but with a nice layer of flattened snow from the lack of plows but cars going over it constantly.
I can say I have done both of your scenarios. I had a 2001 330xi, which SUCKED in snow until I got a good set of blizzaks from Tire Rack. Then, the semi annual swamp would work just great, I loved being able to floor it in the rain, and not slip AT ALL, and it was great in the snow. But, I traded that in for a 335D, lots of torque, oh my! I thought, what will I do in the winter? Tire Rack to the rescue and the blizzaks are great. I don't have 4 tires/wheels all working in unison as I did with the XI, but I can get around just fine, even in 5" of snow. Bottom line: they BOTH work, but I traded off the advantage of AWD for 40 MPG on the highway. No regrets. I bet that does not help you decide!